“Debate performances can be overcome,” Allan Lichtman said. “At the first sign of adversity the spineless Democrats want to throw under the bus, their own incumbent president.”
The only individual characteristic that matters is incumbency.
Most other factors mostly do not depend on the individual who is running. For example, recession, military victories/losses, results of midterm elections, significant third party challenger, etc. The party can run anyone and it would not affect those points.
However, I overlooked another individual characteristic: there is an extra point if the incumbent is a victorious military leader or has significant appeal to members of the opposing party. The only person to get that point in this century was Obama, and only in 2008.
Since then, his signature legislation has failed to pass as intended, he’s broken a strike, he’s supported a genocide, he’s moved to the right on immigration, and he’s claimed to have defeated Medicare. He’s alienated his base and demonstrated that people who were fretting about his age might have been on to something after all.
He beat Trump in a nail-biting squeaker of a contest in 2020, and centrists have been pretending he’s invincible ever since.
The incumbent lost in 2020. There may be other factors.
The only individual characteristic that matters is incumbency.
Most other factors mostly do not depend on the individual who is running. For example, recession, military victories/losses, results of midterm elections, significant third party challenger, etc. The party can run anyone and it would not affect those points.
However, I overlooked another individual characteristic: there is an extra point if the incumbent is a victorious military leader or has significant appeal to members of the opposing party. The only person to get that point in this century was Obama, and only in 2008.
The only one to win the Democratic primaries, at least.
This system is only meant to predict the general election. It ignores any primary candidates who were not nominated.
Seems to me that the model has some blind spots.
It does what it means to do.
Until it doesn’t.
Democrats used to trust polls, too. Now they only trust them if they confirm existing biases.
The other factor is that the incumbent lost in 2020, to the 2024 incumbent.
Like wtf. People saying he can’t do it. He already did it once.
Since then, his signature legislation has failed to pass as intended, he’s broken a strike, he’s supported a genocide, he’s moved to the right on immigration, and he’s claimed to have defeated Medicare. He’s alienated his base and demonstrated that people who were fretting about his age might have been on to something after all.
He beat Trump in a nail-biting squeaker of a contest in 2020, and centrists have been pretending he’s invincible ever since.
Oh boohoo, my team didn’t win everything it wanted so I’m going to take my ball and go home.
Still by far the most progressive president in my lifetime.
Your team didn’t? Did Biden not move far enough to the right for you?
I see. He really isn’t far enough to the right for you. Well you should vote for him anyway. No matter who and all that.