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In most cases, it’s a slam dunk win unless things went really wrong. (say a pandemic)
I think people are severely overestimating how much of an impact being an incumbent actually has with the final results. In smaller elections this definitely has a big impact, but in the entirety of the US history we’ve only had 27 presidents run for reelection, and 9 of them have lost.
That’s a ~67% win rate for incumbent presidents, which isn’t terrible, but isn’t great either, and with a terrible sample size.
This has got to be my biggest pet peeve among most news organizations. Most links on their articles just go back to an older page on their own website instead of pointing at the actual source.