• stanleytweedle@lemmy.ml
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    2 years ago

    Fifteen months of fighting has made clear that neither side has the capacity — even with external help — to achieve a decisive military victory over the other. Regardless of how much territory Ukrainian forces can liberate,

    Interesting take. My take is that Russia has permanently isolated itself from any nation that isn’t either a puppet or lining up for its natural resources while Ukraine effectively implements ‘external support’ to crush Russia’s invasion.

    • Redex@lemmy.world
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      2 years ago

      I mean, that isn’t mutually exclusive with the quote. Both are true. It will be extremely hard for Ukraine to retake all of its territory, and it probably wouldn’t make sense either. But at the same time, this war was extremely costly for Russia and has turned it into a pariah state.

      • stanleytweedle@lemmy.ml
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        2 years ago

        It will depend on sustained western support but Russia’s capaity to maintain the war effort is already breaking while the west is still holding back full support. Russia is on an inevitable downward trajectory and Ukraine is very effectively utilizing a well of military support that is only limited by public sentiment.

        • Skooby1@lemmy.world
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          2 years ago

          Russia is holding a great deal of their reserves back from this conflict. Ukraine is literally forcing people to join their military while Russia has thousands volunteering every week now. Support for the war increased dramatically after shells hit Russian soil. Russia’s increasing military industrial capacity has reinvigorated their economy to the point that Bretton Woods institutions are projecting higher growth for them than most of the countries sanctioning them.

          On top of that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has gone so terribly for them that Putin is now able to sell the success of this “special military operation” to the people while having the luxury of considering alternative outcomes depending on what kind of losses they want to take after this recent Ukrainian effort is over.

        • Redex@lemmy.world
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          2 years ago

          The problem is Russia can be a pariah state and survive. They have natural resources which is all you really need to survive. They also inherited the Soviet Union’s military industry, thought not in it’s full capacity. The West might tire of of supporting Ukraine, it might not, but Russia doesn’t depend on others’ support, they can produce their own weapons. Not in sufficient quantities to conquer the whole of Ukraine, but in sufficient quantities to bog down the war for years to come.

          • stanleytweedle@lemmy.ml
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            2 years ago

            Russia absolutely depends on global supply chains to produce anything more sophisticated than a grenade and their access to advanced technology is increasingly limited to smuggling. Their military-industrial complex is suffering unprecedented brain-drain alongside a demographic collapse. If the west maintains anything like their current level of military support for Ukraine over the next few years Russia will have no choice but to withdraw.

    • redditors_re_racist@lemmy.ml
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      2 years ago

      lmao, russia has not isolated itself from anyone but white nations. the “international community” is just white nations plus the asian places america occupies