They are tied? Are you fucking kidding me USA?
The overlap between sane voters and poll voters isn’t very big.
As an American… expect it to continue getting worse. There are so many batshit stupid people in this country. It’s depressing.
Not only the preferences, the very same electoral system is a damn joke.
“Sorry, 10,000 people in some town in Michigan/Pennsylvania/Georgia decided we’re fascist now.”
"Sorry, billionaires, foreign countries governments, grifting assholes and Facebook Karens brainwashed 10,000 people in some town in Michigan/Pennsylvania/Georgia into believing that all Democrats are pedophiles and trans people are the downfall of society so they decided we’re fascist now.”
This timeline is disgusting. :/
When the average person is being told by Biden that the economy is doing great but don’t see it in housing/food/gas prices where all their money goes, you can bet people will swing back to the lunacy of the right. When you only have two options and are desperate for change what option do people feel they have?
We desperately need third party options.
We should go after the corporations who are just plain taking advantage of people. It is sickening.
If Biden had responded to inflation with price controls these polls would be the other way around
Democrats tried but the bills never got out of committee. Especially when had hit $5 a gallon nation wide.
Tried? No. A few paid lip service. If the democratic party wanted something done they would get it done.
It is so embarrassing how few people understand how our system of government works. The President is not a king.
Not a king. But the bully pulpit has considerable power to shape public discourse.
All I have seen from the administration is explaining how Bidenomics are a huge success, and look at these amazing numbers on a graph that don’t represent working class struggles. It’s a waste of breath when they could be pushing for policies that would make material change for working class people.
He sure as shit used the bully pulpit to explain why breaking up the railway strike was “in our best interests”.
Most of these polls operate by calling people, most people Gen X and younger don’t pick up their phones for unknown callers, so it’s mostly old people being polled, plus the polls from conservative pollers purposely target conservative areas knowing that it will skew the polls how they intend for the polls to lean.
The last few elections should show that people are still overwhelmingly voting Democrat, but things are still far closer than they should be so we all gotta get out there and vote like our freedom from fascism depends on it, because it absolutely does.
20.58% of the US population are baby boomers as of 2022. Source March 2023.
Alternatively, 17% of the US population is over 65. Source July 2022.
Though those aged 50+ are about evenly split between Republican and Democrat Leaning, which was surprising to me. Source.
38.6% of the US population are southerners as of 2022. Source.
Obviously, the above are not additive but other than Georgia, southern states are red for the last Presidential election in 2020. Source.Republican leaning and Democrat leaning about the same at 44% vs. 45% respectively. Interestingly, both parties are the same at 28% of the sampling with 41% identifying as Independant as of 2022. Source.
The source for thehill’s article is from a CBS News poll which may or may not have an even demographic sampling of the US population. However, the above stats do suggest that it is probably accurate enough.
What’s really important is what percentage of these samplings actually bother to vote. Only 49.1% of 18 - 24 year olds in the US are registered to vote, 62.7% for 25 - 24 year olds…increasing with age groups until 75 or older, where there is a slight drop to 76.6%. Source 2022. However, there was only a 62.8% turn-out rate during 2022 and was considered a ‘surge’. Source 2022.
I really don’t want to deep dive in available statistics to start figuring out analytics and predictions. I don’t do this for a living and I am willing to devote no more than 30 minutes to all of this. And unfortunately, the statistics really didn’t show what I’d expect, which was going to probably be that we can just blame the Boomers. It shows a pretty even split amongst the population. Though the trend seems to be that the older you are, the more likely you are to be registered to vote but not necessarily actually vote in the US.
Thank you mate!
[“In recent days, the New York Times/Siena College poll has gotten non-stop attention to the exclusion of nearly every other poll. But if you zoom out, you’ll see a more complete picture. There have been eight polls in the past three weeks showing President Biden leading or tied with Donald Trump,” Tyler said.]
This is the best summary I could come up with:
A year out from the 2022 midterms, every major outlet similarly predicted a grim forecast for President Biden,” Tyler said in the memo.
But Biden has consistently polled badly when voters are asked about his handling of the economy, with stubborn inflation easing very little over the last year.
He quoted economist Daniel Kahneman in the memo, who said: “Most successful pundits are selected for being opinionated, because it’s interesting, and the penalties for incorrect predictions are negligible.”
He echoed comments from Biden campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodriguez, who acknowledged in a memo last week that this will be a very close election.
Earlier Tuesday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre also argued to reporters during the daily briefing that the latest set of polls should be treated with skepticism, pointing to recent examples of surveys failing to predict what would actually happen at the ballot box.
While some current and former Biden aides acknowledged the latest poll painted an unflattering picture, they dismissed the idea that the sky is falling on the president’s chances.
The original article contains 665 words, the summary contains 174 words. Saved 74%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
i can understand harm reduction in picking your vote, but that should totally go out the window after the genocide Biden actively endorsed and enabled. and i’m saying this as a trans person, someone that stands to lose out fairly substantially if republicans gains power.
if your “harm reduction” is voting for a genocide endorser then something is clearly wrong, and you need steer the fuck away from the polls and into some direct action (if you’re not already).
Voting for a third party is basically the only way an average person has to influence policy. If the Republicans lose because half of them voted for JFK JR, then both parties are going to become more concerned about the aliens in the water
No self respecting Arab or Muslim should vote for him after he facilitated -still ongoing- the massacre of children in Palestine
If you’re telling people to not vote for Biden, you’re basically endorsing Republicans. Do you think they’ll be any better?
found the enlightened centrist
How did you arrive to that conclusion?
No it is not an endorsement of Trump anymore than it is an endorsement of West or any other candidate. It is holding a president that enabled the worst Palestinian genocide since 1948 accountable. More bombs in a month than all of 2019 on Afghanistan. More children killed in a month than 18 months of Russian war on Ukraine. More journalists dead in a month than in any other conflict or any other year. People should still vote down ballot for any sane progressives. The Democratic Party can still primary someone younger and with no blood on their hands.
Republicans won’t be better, but at least I know the liberals will not rationalize a genocide when it is a a Republican president. And nothing they can do domestically will ever come close in severity and inhumanity as the ongoing genocide in Gaza.
If Biden doesn’t win, then the Republicans will. It’s as simple as that.
Maybe he shouldn’t have enabled a genocide. We tried Trump before and he didn’t kill over 4000 children
Biden didn’t either…
Now you are just lying. If you are going to engage in genocide denial then don’t expect Arabs/Muslims to vote for your genocidal candidate.
https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/us-complicit-israeli-genocide-gaza
https://theintercept.com/2023/10/19/israel-gaza-biden-genocide-war-crimes/
I don’t know how you can justify a genocide. But I am sure a huge part of it is dehumanizing Arabs/Muslims, which is why I must ask, why do you care who we vote for if you don’t care if we die?
Ok don’t vote for Biden. Where’s your vote going to?
Allying yourself with the Nazis is not going to “help Palestianans”. Nazis have already dehumanized Arabs/Muslims to the maximum extent possible. Bush ® is the president who gave Gaza to Hamas, not Biden. Without Biden there would be no aid trucks going into Gaza. Without Biden there would be no humanitarian pauses. If it is true that “arabs see US as complicit in Israel’s Gaza war”, then it is up to yourself to help them see the actual truth and not the lies.
He’s been supporting Israel, but realistically every president will. What he hasn’t done is stoke anti Muslim hate crimes.
He actually did. A Palestinian child was murdered because Biden spread a lie about beheaded Israeli children
Then you better start finding common ground with swing-obama-trump voters and find some non-israel things to compromise on, bc if far-lefties all stop voting or vote 3rd and all the non-lefties still show up to vote Republican, you just lose more ground to fascists.
What’s more fascist than supporting the murder of over 4000 children?
Ah yes, because the alternative, a racist guy who does Muslim bans, is going to be so much better. In the first-past-the-post, electoral college US, that’s all you’re going to get.
He didn’t facilitate anything. Muslim Egypt could have allowed all civilians to leave Gaza but they didn’t. Muslim Turkey could have evacuated Palestine’s civilians by sea but they didn’t. Muslim Gazans could have overthrown Hamas but they didn’t. The main victims of Hamas are Muslim Palestinians. Only a fool would live anywhere that is controlled by Hamas.
And did you not know that there are plenty of Christians and non Arabs in Palestine too? No self respecting human being cares care only about 1 particular religion or 1 particular ethnic group. Do you know how ridiculous it is that Jews and Muslim are fighting each other because they have different imaginary friends? It will keep on happening forever until you rise above religion and value all of humanity.
He didn’t facilitate anything.
Who are you lying to? Did you miss when the US vetoed the UN ceasefire and when the White House called it repugnant? https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1142507
Muslim Egypt could have allowed all civilians to leave Gaza but they didn’t. Muslim Turkey could have evacuated Palestine’s civilians by sea but they didn’t.
Why? Palestinians are from Palestine. Why should Egypt or Turkey facilitate Israel’s ethnic cleansing of Palestinians? FYI Egypt is a secular state and 10% are Christian.
Muslim Gazans could have overthrown Hamas but they didn’t.
Do you think people in the US should be punished for whoever wins the elections? Should people in the US overthrow their government if it does something awful like bankroll a genocide? 50% of Gazans are children, they can’t overthrow anyone. FYI: resistance to occupation and apartheid is both legal by international laws and moral.
And did you not know that there are plenty of Christians and non Arabs in Palestine too?
Yes I know. Justin Amish Palestinian American Christian had relatives of him murdered by Israel who were sheltering in a church in Gaza. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/palestinian-christians-accuse-western-church-of-complicity-in-gaza-deaths/ar-AA1iCrpk
No self respecting human being cares care only about 1 particular religion or 1 particular ethnic group.
I agreed. Maybe you should learn to care about Palestinians.
Do you know how ridiculous it is that Jews and Muslim are fighting each other because they have different imaginary friends? It will keep on happening forever until you rise above religion and value all of humanity.
It is not a religious war. David Ben-Gurion (the first Israeli Prime Minister) phrased it well: “If I were an Arab leader, I would never sign an agreement with Israel. It is normal; we have taken their country. It is true God promised it to us, but how could that interest them? Our God is not theirs. There has been Anti-Semitism, the Nazis, Hitler, Auschwitz, but was that their fault? They see but one thing: we have come and we have stolen their country. Why would they accept that?” David Ben-Gurion (the first Israeli Prime Minister): Quoted by Nahum Goldmann in Le Paraddoxe Juif (The Jewish Paradox), pp121. [emphasis mine]
“[…] no president has ever run for reelection with a record of accomplishment that is as popular as the one President Biden will be running on over the next year”
Alternative facts.
Enabling a genocide is an accomplishment
It’s not Biden’s fault that you haven’t been paying attention to his accomplishments. Biden’s accomplishments are greater than that of Obama, Clinton, Carter, and obviously every GOP president and Convicted Rapist Treason Trump
